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Prediction for CME (2024-07-17T07:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-07-17T07:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32027/-1
CME Note: CME visible to the west in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Associated with an M5.0 flare seen in SDO AIA 131 from S10W30 (AR 13743) which had a peak time of 2024-07-17T06:39Z. Dimming is seen in SDO AIA 193, opening field lines are seen in SDO AIA 171, and post-eruptive brightening is seen in SDO AIA 131/193/304. Seen in SDO AIA imagery before a shutter maneuver/eclipse lasting from 17/07:07Z to 17/07:48Z. Seen also in GOES SUVI and STEREO A EUV imagery. No clear CME arrival signature in solar wind at L1.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-21T04:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
BoM ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.7
Grid: 256x30x90
Resolution: low
Ambient settings: 
Ejecta settings: 
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: 

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: T2024-07-17 15:45
Radial velocity (km/s): 473
Longitude (deg): 41
Latitude (deg): 3
Half-angular width (deg): 29

Notes: Enlil output shows an Earth miss with bulk of CME ahead of teh Earth. Chance of glancing blow on 21-Jul.

Lead Time: 69.82 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2024-07-18T06:11Z

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